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What age is music most nostalgic?

The breakpoint indicates that popular music preferences peak when respondents are about 16.8 years old. Visually, this age corresponds with the approximate peak of the observed values.

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Considerable attention has been dedicated to understanding the development and nature of music preferences (see Colley, 2008; Dunn et al., 2012). Findings suggest that age, gender, ethnic background, social class and/or personality type can distinguish individual music tastes (e.g. LeBlanc et al., 1996; Rentfrow & Gosling, 2003; Savage, 2006). Several studies suggest that age may be the largest predictor of music preferences (e.g. Baur et al., 2012; North, 2010). Common findings are that younger listeners are fans of Rock and Pop, while older listeners more often turn to Classical and Jazz (LeBlanc et al., 1996; Savage, 2006). In further investigating the influence of age, Holbrook and Schindler (1989) found that preferences for popular music are developed during a critical period of an individual’s life and that these preferences tend to stay stable over time. The authors regressed a standardized dependent variable of musical preference on an interactive predictor variable termed “song-specific age”, which is a measure of a respondent’s age at the time that various musical stimuli (i.e. songs) reached popularity in the Billboard Top 10 charts. Two important findings were revealed. First, preferences for popular music and the age someone is when the song was released (conceptualized as “song-specific age” or SSA) follow an inverted U-shape relationship. Second, preferences for popular music peak when an individual is around 23.5 years old. It was concluded that preferences for popular music reflect the tastes acquired during the period of late adolescence to early adulthood. That is, people have highest preferences for music from when they are around 23.5 years old, and lower preferences for music that was released before or after this approximate age. This study was later replicated with a larger German sample (Hemming, 2013). However, a conflicting preference peak of 8.59 was found, which led the author to conclude that there was no empirical support for the original study. The original authors argued that the replication study did support the original findings due to a number of faults in the replication (Holbrook & Schindler, 2013). Specifically, outliers, most commonly at the tails of the data, should have been removed as they reflect very small sample sizes. Further, the distribution of the replication data was skewed to the right and would have been better suited to a cubic rather than a quadratic equation. Additionally, the cleaning of data points consisting of fewer than 50 individual ratings was arbitrary and resulted in the removal of large parts of data. After these criticisms were resolved in a re-analysis, the preference peak increased to 19.23. Therefore, the preference peak was maintained as occurring “during late adolescence or early adulthood”. This conflict forms the core of the present research, which is an additional replication of these studies. Calls for external validity were only in part answered by Hemming’s replication. The original study only gathered data from a convenience sample of 108 respondents and could be expanded to a larger, representative sample. As alluded to by all authors, there are more advanced techniques for examining the relationship between popular music preferences and age, such as two linear regressions rather than a traditional quadratic regression. One alternative is Simonsohn’s (2019) two-lines test, which was developed as a more valid method for detecting a true U-shaped relationship. The test fits two linear regressions for low and high values of x and determines that a U-shape relationship is present if both slopes are significant and of opposite sign. It also establishes a data-driven breakpoint through a “Robin-Hood algorithm”, which tests two linear regressions across the data, and then “steals” observations from the “richer” (i.e. more statistically powerful) line until both regressions are as statistically powerful as possible (for more details, see Simonsohn, 2019). While Holbrook and Schindler (1996) had applied two linear regressions through piece-wise linear modelling when examining the generational effect in preferences for films, they had not revisited it in the context of preferences for popular music.

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Music consumption has evolved considerably, even since Hemming’s replication in 2013, most notably through the rapid rise of music streaming. By way of illustration, the number of users of any music subscription service has increased from 18 million in 2013 to 341 million in 2019 (nearly an 1800% increase). According to industry reports, music streaming is frequently used by 89% of surveyed respondents, while streaming engagement is increasing globally among all ages (International Federation of the Phonographic Industry, 2020). With on-demand access to millions of songs, and sophisticated algorithms to provide personally curated music suggestions, there is greater opportunity for listeners to discover a wider range of music, both new and old. Therefore, a shift in the preference peak or even from an inverted U-shaped relationship altogether is not improbable. This research aims to examine whether a preference for popular music of a specific era still exists and whether it still follows a non-monotonic relationship with age.

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