Piano Guidance
Piano Guidance
Photo: Thibault Luycx
No demographic data exist for more than 99% of the span of human existence. Still, with some assumptions about population size throughout human history, we can get a rough idea of this number: About 117 billion members of our species have ever been born on Earth.
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Read More »In any case, life was short. Life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about 10 years for most of human history. Average life expectancy in Iron Age France (from 800 B.C.E. to about 100 C.E.) has been estimated at only 10 or 12 years. Under these conditions, the birth rate would have to be about 80 live births per 1,000 people just for the species to survive. To put that in perspective, a high birth rate today is about 35 to 45 live births per 1,000 population, and it is observed in only some sub-Saharan African countries. These short life expectancies mean that the human population had a hard time increasing. One estimate of the population of the Roman Empire, spanning Spain to Asia Minor, in 14 C.E. is 45 million. Other historians, however, set the figure twice as high, suggesting how imprecise population estimates of early historical periods can be. By 1650, the world’s population rose to about 500 million—not a large increase from the estimate of 300 million in 1 C.E. The average annual rate of growth was actually lower in this period than the rate suggested for 8000 B.C.E. to 1 C.E. One reason for the unusually slower growth was the Black Death. This dreaded plague was not limited to 14th-century Europe but may have begun in western Asia in about 542 C.E. and spread from there. Experts believe that half the Byzantine Empire was destroyed by plague in the sixth century, a total of 100 million deaths. Such large fluctuations in population size over long periods greatly compound the difficulty of estimating the number of people who have ever lived. By 1800, however, the world population passed the 1 billion mark and has since continued to grow to its current 8 billion (our most recent estimate as of 2022). This growth is driven in large part by advances in public health, medicine, and nutrition that have lowered death rates, allowing more people to live far into their reproductive years.
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Read More »Guesstimating the number of people ever born requires determining population sizes for different points in human prehistory and history and applying assumed birth rates to each period. We start at the very, very beginning—with just two people (a minimalist approach!). Although it is unlikely that humans descended from two people, this approach simplifies our estimation. One complicating factor is the pattern of population growth. Did it rise to some level and then fluctuate wildly in response to famines and changes in climate? Or did it grow at a constant rate? We cannot know the answers to these questions, although paleontologists have produced a variety of theories. For the purposes of this exercise, we assumed a constant growth rate applied to each period up to modern times. Birth rates were set at 80 per 1,000 population annually through 1 C.E. and at 60 per 1,000 from 2 C.E. to 1750. Rates then declined to below the 20s by the modern period (see Table 1). This semi-scientific approach yields an estimate of about 117 billion births since the dawn of modern humankind. Clearly, the period 190,000 B.C.E. to 1 C.E. is key to our estimate but, unfortunately, little is known about that era’s population size. If we were to challenge our conclusion at all, it might be that our method underestimates the number of births to some degree. The assumption of constant rather than highly fluctuating population growth in the earlier period may underestimate the average population size at the time.
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